Ndax Wealth: Market Report Apr 22

Digital asset markets and global risk assets spent the past week in reactive mode, with the Strait of Hormuz acting as the central variable connecting oil, inflation expectations, and cross-asset sentiment. Geopolitical headlines continued to drive short-term direction, but underneath the noise, several constructive signals are worth paying attention to, particularly in crypto, where ETF demand is holding up and earnings season has offered equities a fundamental anchor.

This week: Bitcoin traded in a tightly defined range, briefly pushing toward a high of $78,000 USD on Middle East de-escalation optimism before retracing to the low-to-mid $70,000 USD as uncertainty resurfaced. Spot ETF inflows approached $1 billion USD on the week, the strongest stretch since mid-January, with BlackRock's IBIT absorbing the bulk of institutional flow and total ETF net assets climbing above $101 billion.

Beneath the surface, the market continues to mature in ways that are easy to miss at the index level. Bitcoin dominance remains elevated near 59% and the broader altcoin complex is lagging, but infrastructure-linked assets, tokenization plays, and select AI-aligned projects are outperforming on a relative basis. Worth flagging: the Kelp DAO exploit triggered a $292 million USD loss and cascading liquidity stress across nine DeFi protocols, a reminder that structural risks in decentralized finance remain real even as institutional interest builds.

For crypto traders: ETF inflows have remained consistent, and Bitcoin dominance has held at elevated levels heading into the FOMC meeting next week. Market participants are watching both data points closely, along with any resolution or escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, as the macro backdrop continues to evolve.

The backdrop: The past week was defined by repeated shifts between escalation and tentative de-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, driving sharp moves across oil, rates, and risk sentiment. Supply disruptions through the strait, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows, have pushed crude around $90 USD per barrel and contributed to elevated inflation expectations globally. Retail spending headline numbers have stayed firm, but a growing portion reflects higher energy costs rather than genuine demand strength. PMI readings and inflation data due in the coming weeks will be watched closely for signs of whether input cost pressure is beginning to weigh more materially on activity.

The key event: The FOMC meets April 28 to 29. Markets are pricing a near-certain hold, CME FedWatch puts the probability at over 99%, but the guidance language will matter. With March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year and labor markets still resilient, the Fed has no cover to signal cuts. Forward guidance that reinforces higher for longer could reset rate expectations meaningfully heading into May.

The move: Equity markets delivered a strong rebound over the week, with major indexes recovering sharply on a combination of easing geopolitical fears and a better-than-expected start to Q1 earnings season. With roughly 10% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 88% have beaten EPS estimates and the revenue beat rate stands at 84%, both above five- and ten-year averages according to FactSet. Large-cap technology led the advance with the sector gaining over 8%, while small caps and cyclicals showed early signs of broader participation.

The caution is in the setup from here. The S&P 500's forward P/E is approaching 21x, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 RSIs finished the week in the low-to-mid 70s, territory that historically precedes consolidation. This week is the heaviest reporting week of the season, with Tesla, Boeing, Intel, and major technology names front and centre. The market's willingness to hold these levels will depend on the quality of guidance, margin commentary, and what management teams say about the consumer. Any softness tied to elevated energy and input costs could puncture the rally quickly.

In brief: Treasury yields moved higher overall, with the 10-year settling around 4.26%, the 2-year near 3.71%, and the 30-year at 4.88%, a curve that remains modestly steepened as markets price eventual easing on the short end while the long end prices persistent inflation risk. The U.S. dollar stabilized after recent weakness, with the DXY capped in the 100 to 101 range and the year-to-date low of 95.55 back in scope if energy dynamics shift.

The read: Oil has been in sharp focus since the US-Iran conflict escalated, with Brent swinging around $90 USD as markets react to every diplomatic signal around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold briefly crossed $4,850 on ceasefire optimism before falling more than 2% as higher real yields and a firmer dollar overrode haven demand. Energy has been the primary transmission channel between geopolitics, inflation, rates, and currency moves in recent weeks. Until a durable resolution emerges around the Strait of Hormuz, this complex is likely to remain a key variable across asset classes.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs record strongest weekly inflows since January, led by renewed institutional demand across major issuers (The Block) BlackRock's IBIT absorbed the majority of flows.

Strategy proposes adjusting preferred dividend structure to a semi-monthly cadence to improve liquidity and price stability (CoinDesk) A corporate treasury refinement, not a strategy shift. Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation thesis remains unchanged.

Global policymakers raise concerns around stablecoin-driven dollarisation risks and broader financial stability implications (Federal Reserve) Regulatory headwinds for stablecoins are building globally.

Strategy expands Bitcoin holdings to over 815,000 BTC, surpassing BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (CoinDesk) Strategy is now the largest single corporate holder of Bitcoin by a significant margin. 

With geopolitical risk still elevated and the FOMC meeting next week, there may be a period of relative volatility. Whether you're looking to add exposure or manage risk, our OTC desk can help you move efficiently. Please reach out any time if you'd like to trade.