Ndax Wealth: Market Report Aug 25

Bitcoin rallied more than 20% over the past week to trade near $78,770 USD after a historic short squeeze, reclaiming the 200-day moving average and moving toward $80,000 USD for the first time since the spring. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2 billion USD in weekly net inflows, their strongest of 2026, while equities finished lower on rising yields and AI infrastructure scrutiny. Nvidia earnings Wednesday and Jackson Hole are the week's key catalysts.\

The rally: Bitcoin gained more than 20% over the past week to trade near $78,770 USD, amplified by a historic short squeeze that liquidated roughly $3 billion USD in bearish positions. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2 billion USD in weekly net inflows, their strongest week of 2026, including more than $600 million USD in a single session. Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average and moved toward the $80,000 USD area for the first time since the spring.

Participation broadened beyond Bitcoin. Ethereum gained more than 20% and outperformed Bitcoin at points, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their strongest daily inflows since October 2025. Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid also participated. The administration renewed calls for Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, and U.S. regulators continued developing permanent rules for digital assets.

Two tests ahead: Whether ETF demand remains durable and whether Nvidia earnings on Wednesday and the Jackson Hole symposium alter the yields, dollar and liquidity backdrop that helped support the move. 

The tension: July consumer inflation was relatively contained while weaker employment and retail sales showed cooling momentum, though Federal Reserve July meeting minutes revealed policymakers remain concerned about inflation persistence. Long-term Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs before the Treasury announced it would at least double the size of buyback operations targeting longer-dated securities. Yields initially fell sharply but recovered much of the move within days.

All eyes on Jackson Hole: The annual symposium runs August 27 to 29, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh expected to deliver his first keynote as Chair addressing the balance between softer domestic activity and above-target inflation and fiscal pressures. Trade tensions including renewed U.S.-Canada tariffs and additional pressure on Iran remain another uncertainty ahead of the September FOMC. 

The divergence: The S&P 500 finished lower and the Nasdaq underperformed as rising Treasury yields, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed AI infrastructure scrutiny weighed on technology and semiconductor shares. The pullback occurred despite strong earnings growth across much of the S&P 500. Investors are becoming more discerning about which AI-related companies can translate capital expenditure into sustainable revenue and cash flow.

Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, August 26, immediately before Jackson Hole. Equities face two connected tests: whether the fundamental earnings case supporting AI-related valuations remains intact, and whether the interest-rate environment remains compatible with those valuations. 

The buyback move: Long-dated Treasury yields reached levels not seen since 2007 before the Treasury expanded its bond-buyback program, briefly sending the 30-year yield lower. Much of the move reversed as investors focused on the structural imbalance between government borrowing and demand for duration, leaving the 10-year around 4.7% and the 30-year above 5.2%.

Gold higher, oil rebuilds: Gold advanced above $4,600 USD per ounce as fiscal concerns and demand for alternative stores of value remained supportive. Oil moved higher as renewed pressure on Iran and Middle East shipping uncertainty rebuilt part of the geopolitical premium. 

• Ray Dalio recommends reducing bond exposure and increasing allocations to gold and Bitcoin amid concerns over rising U.S. debt. (Bloomberg)
• Strategy raised approximately $2 billion USD through share sales, increasing its USD reserves to $6.69 billion USD while maintaining its Bitcoin holdings at 840,447 BTC. (CoinDesk)
• The CFTC is preparing crypto market regulations using its existing authority in case the CLARITY Act fails to pass the Senate. (CoinDesk)
• X is reportedly exploring the use of stablecoins to pay royalties to content creators and influencers. (CoinDesk) 

With Bitcoin rallying more than 20% to near $78,770 USD, gold above $4,600 USD, and Nvidia earnings arriving Wednesday ahead of Jackson Hole, market conditions remain active across asset classes. Whether you're looking to add exposure or manage risk, our OTC desk can help you move efficiently. Please reach out any time for more information about trading or available services.