Ndax Wealth: Market Report Feb 25

Digital asset markets remain under sustained pressure following Bitcoin’s peak near $126,000 in October 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading in the low-$60,000s, testing a critical support band between $60,000 and $65,000. This region is technically significant: the 200-week moving average sits near $58,500, and weekly RSI readings have reached deeply oversold territory, levels rarely observed in Bitcoin’s history. However, prior cycles suggest that oversold conditions alone do not define a durable bottom. From a structural perspective, the breakdown from the $90,000–$126,000 range resembles a completed distribution phase, and weekly momentum indicators remain mixed, offering no clear confirmation of a sustained move in either direction. Vaneck

Broader crypto assets continue to exhibit amplified downside relative to Bitcoin. Ethereum is down roughly 63% from its recent highs, while Solana and XRP have seen drawdowns ranging between 56% and 68%. Notably, the current correction remains less severe than the 2021–2022 unwind, when peak-to-trough declines exceeded 75% across major assets. ETF flows remain negative, marking multiple consecutive weeks of net outflows, and exchange data show large holders accounting for a disproportionate share of inflows. At the same time, long-term corporate holders have shown limited distribution, and cumulative demand metrics have stabilized after several months of contraction. Sentiment indicators remain in “extreme fear,” while derivatives positioning suggests deleveraging rather than aggressive new short exposure. In the absence of renewed institutional inflows or a clear macro catalyst, digital assets remain sensitive to liquidity conditions and broader risk appetite. CoinDesk

The macro backdrop is currently defined by policy uncertainty rather than clear economic deterioration. U.S. core PCE rose to 3% year-over-year in December, reinforcing concerns that inflation progress has stalled. At the same time, Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4% annualized, with much of the weakness attributed to government shutdown effects. FOMC minutes revealed a more divided committee than markets anticipated, with some policymakers expressing concern that rates may need to remain restrictive for longer if inflation persists. Markets continue to price modest easing later this year, though expectations remain fluid and data-dependent. CNBC

Trade policy developments have added a new layer of uncertainty. Following a Supreme Court ruling on prior tariff measures, the administration announced a temporary global tariff under Section 122, later signaling intentions to raise the rate to the statutory maximum of 15%. The potential for retaliatory measures has weighed on risk sentiment, while geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have supported safe-haven flows. Oil and gold responded accordingly, though both remain highly sensitive to headline risk. Fed speakers this week, along with PPI and consumer confidence data, may provide incremental clarity around inflation persistence and the central bank’s reaction function. Reuters

U.S. equity indices remain near record territory, but internal dispersion continues to widen. Last week saw renewed volatility following tariff developments and Middle East tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed early in the week, while the Nasdaq remained comparatively softer amid continued scrutiny of AI-related capital expenditure sustainability. The S&P 500 advanced modestly, though sector rotation remained pronounced beneath the surface. This week’s focal point is earnings, particularly from Nvidia, given its central role in the AI infrastructure cycle. Markets are watching whether hyperscaler capital commitments, projected to exceed $600 billion in 2026, translate into durable margin expansion and earnings visibility. Software stocks have faced elevated pressure amid questions about AI disruption risk and valuation sensitivity. Earnings from Workday, Salesforce, Snowflake, and others arrive at a time when investor tolerance for guidance uncertainty appears limited. Meanwhile, developments in healthcare, industrials, and alternative asset managers underscore that policy, regulation, and capital flows remain material drivers of equity performance beyond headline index levels. Investing

Fixed income and currency markets continue to reflect a balance between sticky inflation and moderating growth momentum. U.S. Treasury yields remain range-bound as investors weigh recent inflation data, trade-policy uncertainty, and evolving expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Market pricing for potential rate adjustments has shifted incrementally with each data release, reinforcing how sensitive rates remain to incoming economic signals. In FX, the U.S. dollar has softened modestly amid tariff developments and fluctuating rate expectations, while USD/JPY remains below levels that have previously triggered intervention concerns. Commodity markets are being shaped more by geopolitical developments than demand fundamentals: gold continues to attract safe-haven interest alongside ongoing central bank accumulation, and oil remains responsive to U.S.–Iran negotiations and broader Middle East tensions, with a geopolitical premium still reflected in prices. CNBC

• Federal Reserve Initiates Review of “Reputational Risk” in Bank Supervision – The Fed has opened a 60-day comment period on removing reputational risk from supervisory frameworks, a move viewed by some lawmakers as relevant to crypto banking access. Decrypt
• Jane Street Faces Legal Action Related to Terraform Labs Collapse – The administrator overseeing Terraform’s wind-down has filed suit alleging improper trading conduct during the firm’s collapse. Jane Street disputes the claims. Bloomberg
• Solana Ecosystem Platform Step Finance to Wind Down Following Security Breach – The firm announced it will cease operations after failing to recover from a $40M exploit earlier this year. The Block
• Strategy Announces Milestone 100th Bitcoin Purchase – The company acquired an additional 592 BTC last week, bringing total holdings above 717,000 coins. CoinDesk

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