Ndax Wealth: Market Report Mar 25

The first quarter of 2026 was difficult on the surface, with negative returns across crypto segments as geopolitical stress and macro repricing pushed investors toward a more defensive posture. Underneath that, however, the market continued to show signs of maturation. Grayscale’s latest sector work highlighted that AI-linked tokens and financial infrastructure projects were comparatively resilient, while tokenization and stablecoin activity continued to expand even as broader price performance remained weak. That distinction matters: capital appears to be rewarding areas tied to real usage, institutional workflows, and onchain financial infrastructure rather than purely speculative beta. Grayscale

In the shorter term, Bitcoin remains the market’s anchor, but the tone has been more mixed than uniformly weak. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $70,500 USD. Spot ETF demand stayed positive for a fourth straight week, though inflows moderated and were partly offset by late-week outflows, suggesting institutional re-engagement is present but still tentative. Across major assets, leadership has also narrowed: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana continue to dominate spot activity, while many smaller tokens remain far less liquid and more selective in their performance. For sophisticated traders, the takeaway is that crypto is still trading as a macro-sensitive asset class, but with clearer internal differentiation emerging between infrastructure-led projects and the rest of the market. BeInCrypto

The macro backdrop remains dominated by one central issue: markets are trying to price a geopolitical shock without a stable framework for measuring its duration or economic spillovers. The Iran conflict continues to feed volatility across oil, rates, currencies, and equities, while business surveys now suggest the economic effects are beginning to show up more clearly in activity and inflation expectations. Reuters reported that March PMIs across the U.S., euro zone, UK, and Japan all softened as higher energy prices and uncertainty weighed on demand, reinforcing concerns that the market is now dealing less with a simple risk event and more with the early contours of a potential stagflationary impulse. Reuters

At the same time, central banks are being forced into a more delicate balancing act. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% and projected higher inflation alongside just one rate cut in 2026, while emphasizing that the war with Iran has materially increased uncertainty around the outlook. That leaves markets caught between softer growth signals and the possibility that higher energy prices keep inflation sticky for longer. In practical terms, this has made the rates path less forgiving with increased sensitivity to incoming macro data, and kept cross-asset volatility elevated even on days when the headlines briefly appear to improve. CNBC

Equity markets continue to look less fragile at the index level than they do beneath the surface. Last week’s selloff showed how quickly sentiment can deteriorate when rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a more hawkish interpretation of the Fed begin to reinforce one another. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 lost 1.9% on the week, while the Nasdaq and Dow both fell a little more than 2%, with all three major indexes below their 200-day moving averages by week’s end. That combination suggests the market is no longer being driven only by headlines, but also by a broader repricing of inflation risk and financing conditions. Reuters

This week has already shown how quickly that mood can reverse. Stocks rebounded sharply after President Trump said the U.S. would postpone planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and that talks with Tehran were underway, even as Iran disputed that characterization. The speed of that reversal is itself instructive: equities remain highly responsive to any hint of de-escalation, but the rebound has not yet removed the underlying sensitivity to oil, yields, and macro data. For now, this still looks like a market trading event-to-event rather than one with a stable conviction trend. CNBC
 

Fixed income, FX, and commodities remain the clearest transmission channels for the current geopolitical shock. Treasury yields have stayed elevated as investors reassess inflation risk from energy, with the U.S. 10-year yield recently around 4.36%–4.38%, while the dollar has been steadier than some other traditional havens. In commodities, oil remains the dominant macro variable: Brent has swung violently around the $100 level as markets react to conflicting signals on U.S.-Iran diplomacy and the status of regional supply routes. Gold, notably, has not behaved like a conventional haven in this episode, suffering its worst weekly decline since 1983 as higher yields and tighter liquidity overwhelmed geopolitical demand. Taken together, the message from these markets is that investors are still prioritizing inflation, rates, and liquidity over classic safe-haven patterns. CNN

• ECB official emphasizes tokenized central bank money as critical to scaling Europe’s digital financial markets. Cointelegraph
• Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 open interest hits a new record as tokenized real-world assets drive activity higher. The Block
• NYSE exchanges propose removal of position limits on options tied to spot BTC and ETH ETFs to align with broader market standards. TheBlock
• Strategy continues accumulation, adding another 1,031 bitcoin to its growing corporate treasury holdings. CoinDesk