Ndax Wealth: Market Report Oct 20

Bitcoin trades near $82,000 USD after a volatile stretch that saw hotter U.S. inflation drive the price toward $80,000 USD. The 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back toward 5.1% from an October high near 5.35%, while the Nasdaq fell about 4.5% last week and the semiconductor index declined roughly 11%. Brent crude trades above $100 USD per barrel. Attention centres on this week's earnings calendar (Meta Platforms and Tesla on Wednesday) ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 policy meeting.

Pressure and rebound: Bitcoin enters the week near $82,000 USD after hotter U.S. inflation and pressure on technology equities pushed the price toward $80,000 USD and triggered leveraged liquidations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $228 million USD in net outflows last week, following roughly $681 million USD the week prior.

Ownership trends paint a more nuanced picture. Glassnode estimates the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings near $81,500 USD. CryptoQuant data shows wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC added approximately 70,000 BTC in aggregate between late September and early October, a contrast between ETF redemptions and large on-chain accumulation.

Beneath the surface: Altcoins corrected more sharply, with Ethereum, Solana and XRP underperforming Bitcoin, and Cardano, NEAR Protocol (NEAR) and Avalanche (AVAX) among the week's weaker performers. CoinGlass's Altcoin Season Index retreated to 50 after approaching the low 70s earlier in October, while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index moved back toward neutral territory. Bitcoin's behaviour around $80,000-$81,500 USD and renewed ETF activity will provide useful context ahead of the October 27-28 Federal Reserve meeting. 

Hotter inflation: September U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding the 3.6% consensus and accelerating from August's 3.4%. Higher gasoline prices contributed, and core inflation also beat expectations. The report arrived against a softer employment backdrop, with September payroll growth of 29,000 and downward revisions to earlier months. Markets initially increased expectations for further tightening, though subsequent remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh were read as leaving room for a pause at the October meeting.

Abroad and ahead: China's third-quarter GDP expanded 4.5% year-over-year, while political and fiscal uncertainty in France continued to attract attention in European markets. This week's U.S. calendar is comparatively light. The bigger events arrive the following week, when the Federal Reserve's October 27-28 policy meeting will coincide with additional growth and inflation data. U.S.-Iran negotiations also remain relevant for energy prices. 

A tech-led split: U.S. equities diverged sharply last week as concerns over AI infrastructure spending and elevated financing costs weighed on technology shares. The Nasdaq declined approximately 4.5%, the S&P 500 fell around 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained roughly 0.7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined approximately 11%, with CoreWeave attracting scrutiny as investors reassessed debt requirements for large-scale data-centre investment. The weakness reflects growing attention to AI financing economics, rather than a change in long-term adoption expectations.

Third-quarter earnings now offer an opportunity to assess those concerns. Meta Platforms and Tesla report Wednesday, alongside Netflix, GE Aerospace, General Motors, IBM and Lam Research. Meta's commentary on how AI-related capital expenditure is translating into advertising performance will be particularly relevant, while semiconductor and infrastructure results should provide insight into demand and margins. The question for equities is increasingly one of earnings quality and capital efficiency, rather than revenue growth alone. 

Bonds find a bid: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield retreated toward 5.1% after reaching approximately 5.35% earlier in October, as bond demand strengthened during the technology-led equity selloff. The U.S. dollar eased from recent highs, while European political uncertainty continued to influence regional currencies. Gold traded near $4,140 USD per ounce, reflecting competing defensive-asset demand against elevated real interest rates.

Oil stays in the picture: Brent crude traded above $100 USD per barrel amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. Reports of potential diplomatic progress contributed to some moderation in prices, though underlying supply risks remain unresolved. The interaction between energy costs, Treasury yields and currency movements will remain especially relevant ahead of next week's Federal Reserve decision.

• Strategy purchased an additional 267 BTC, bringing total holdings to 848,517 BTC, while expanding its preferred share repurchase program. (The Block)
• Solana scheduled its Alpenglow upgrade for October 21, targeting transaction finality near 150 milliseconds. (CoinDesk)
• Bitmine added 12,532 ETH, bringing total holdings above 6 million ETH, valued at approximately $15.3 billion USD. (The Block)
• Ledger reported a supply-chain security breach involving compromised hardware wallets, with estimated losses near $93.2 million USD. (CoinDesk) 

With Bitcoin trading near $82,000 USD, the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.1% and the Nasdaq pulling back from recent highs, market conditions remain active across asset classes. Whether you're looking to add exposure or manage risk, our OTC desk can help you move efficiently. Please reach out any time for more information about trading or available services.