Ndax Wealth: Market Report Sept 9

Bitcoin traded near $79,500 USD to kick off the holiday-shortened week after briefly climbing to around $81,700 USD last week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $987 million in weekly net inflows, extending their positive streak to three weeks. A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report pushed expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike back toward 60%, lifting Treasury yields and putting renewed pressure on rate-sensitive assets. Oil climbed toward $100 USD per barrel as U.S.-Iran tensions intensified, leaving Thursday’s producer inflation report and Friday’s consumer inflation report as the week’s key catalysts.

The hold: Bitcoin traded near $79,500 USD Monday after trading above the $80,000 level last week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows, their third consecutive positive week. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge and accounted for around $692 million in inflows. August inflows ended at $3.52 billion, their strongest month since September 2025.

Ethereum ETFs also recorded approximately $218 million USD in weekly net inflows, extending their own positive streak to three weeks. Crypto markets have remained comparatively resilient even as Treasury yields, oil prices, and expectations for tighter monetary policy moved higher following last Friday’s much-better-than-expected U.S. employment report.

Two tests ahead: Whether ETF demand remains durable and whether Bitcoin can hold around the $80,000 USD area as markets digest producer inflation Thursday and consumer inflation Friday. Those releases are the final major U.S. inflation readings before the Federal Reserve's September 15 to 16 meeting.

The jobs surprise: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, nearly three times the 56,000 consensus estimate, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Labor force participation increased to 61.6%, and annual wage growth eased slightly to 3.1%. The stronger report contributed to an increase in market-implied expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, with probabilities rising to approximately 60%.

In Canada, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% last week and signaled that additional tightening could become necessary if inflation remains elevated. Canadian employment data last week showed the economy lost approximately 42,000 jobs in August while unemployment remained at 6.4%.

All eyes on inflation: U.S. producer inflation arrives on Thursday, followed by CPI data on Friday. Market expectations are for core consumer inflation to ease to around 2.4% year-over-year from 2.5% in July. However, elevated energy prices continue to be monitored as a potential inflationary risk. Meanwhile, market participants broadly expect the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday as higher energy costs contribute to renewed inflation pressure.
 

Rates take back control: U.S. equities finished Friday lower after the jobs report strengthened the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The S&P 500 declined 0.38%, the Nasdaq fell 0.29%, and the Dow lost 0.51%. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, and the Dow slipped 0.3%. The move reversed part of Thursday’s rally, when comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller had temporarily reduced rate-hike expectations.

AI fundamentals remained comparatively strong. Nvidia recently reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion USD, more than double the prior year, and projected approximately 70% revenue growth in the next fiscal year. Broadcom also raised its longer-term AI chip sales outlook, although a softer near-term revenue forecast highlighted how high investor expectations remain across the sector.

Equities will remain focused on interest-rate expectations as markets assess whether this week's inflation data reinforces the case for tighter monetary policy and pushes yields higher, or provides support for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in September. 

The repricing: Treasury yields rose following Friday’s jobs report, with the two-year yield around 4.37% and the 10-year near 4.78%. Longer-term yields also remain elevated as markets balance persistent inflation, government borrowing, and stronger economic data. The U.S. dollar initially strengthened following payrolls, while the Japanese yen moved sharply higher Monday as expectations for additional Bank of Japan tightening increased.

Oil higher, gold pressured: Brent crude climbed to approximately $97.50 USD per barrel to start the week, marking a six-week high. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and concerns around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz contributed to an increase in the geopolitical risk premium. Gold traded near $4,410 USD per ounce as stronger employment data and higher rate expectations offset some of the support from geopolitical uncertainty.

• DBS and Citi completed a weekend U.S. dollar payment between Singapore and the United States using tokenized deposits through Swift's
• Digital Ledger, with DBS saying the transaction settled within minutes. (DBS)
  French Bitcoin treasury company Capital B acquired 376 BTC for approximately $29.4 million USD, bringing its holdings to 3,521 BTC.  (The Block) 
• The SEC proposed modernizing its transfer-agent rules to account for electronic systems, blockchain technology and tokenized securities. (CoinDesk)
• Of the roughly 4,000 BTC withdrawn from the Liquid Network during a security incident, 3,400 BTC were returned after a software bug was patched, with roughly 598.5 BTC remaining in the other party's wallet as of Monday. (Gizmodo)

With Bitcoin holding near $79,500 USD, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield around 4.78%, Brent crude approaching $100 USD and key U.S. inflation data arriving later this week, market conditions remain active across asset classes. Our OTC desk is available to assist clients with trade execution and liquidity needs across a range of market conditions.  Please reach out any time for more information about trading or available services.