BIG PICTURE
This week witnessed a much needed bounce in price levels across the board, from equities to crypto (and bond yields–though this last one is not a good thing). The general trend remains down however, so we’re not holding our breath for the end of this bear market...
Canadian miner Hut 8 added 5,800 mining rigs to their arsenal and remain on track in their strategy to HODL through the volatility (they currently sit on 7,400+BTC). Additionally, Voyager Digital filed for Bankruptcy, and, last but not least, not one–or two–but three executives left JP Morgan this week for high-profile jobs in crypto. But first…
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
The times that Bitcoiners are actually vindicated by mainstream media narratives are few and far between… So when the WSJ came out this week echo-ing many of the complaints that we have been leveling against the head of the SEC’s Chair Gensler since his appointment to office–it felt good.
- We’re not crazy afterall! And though none of us needed the ‘approval’ of the Wall Street Journal, it never hurts to receive it.
- You must scan this article. The headline is epic:
- "Gary Gensler's Bitcoin Regulation Grab: The SEC chief is blocking innovation until he can control crypto markets" WSJ
- Shots fired.
For the second time this year, the 2 and 10 year US Treasury Bond yields have inverted…
- Meaning the market has decided that 2-year US Treasury Bonds should pay out more than holding the 10 year bond to maturity. Yikes?
- This squeezes bank profits and generally discourages loans, which could slow the economy (which by other metrics like labour numbers looks no-so-bad).
- These types of bond yield inversions are usually seen as early indicators of rockiness ahead (euphemism for recession), but not always!
- In most occurrences where 2 and 10-year bond-yield inversions have indeed predated recessions, those officially set in about a year later.
Speaking of squeezing, was this week’s bounce a genuine relief rally? Just short-covering? Or are we low-key gearing up for another epic, face-melting 10-year bull-run?
- Forgive our naive optimism, we know it’s not likely the latter.
- There is however good evidence to suggest that a small relief rally (things don’t typically go straight down forever without ‘breathers’) could have sparked short-covering, which in turn fed the rally.
MARKET UPDATES
REGULATION:
- The Wall-Street Journal Fires Shots at SEC Chair Gensler WSJ
INDUSTRY NEWS:
- Canadian Bitcoin Miner Hut 8 Adds 5,600 New ASICs to their Arsenal CoinDesk
- This 150+ Year Old Bank Just Opened a $100M Vault on MakerDAO The Defiant
- Celcsius Begins Repaying Its Loans on Aave, Compound CoinDesk
- Three Execs Leave JP Morgan for Crypto CoinDesk
- MakerDAO Adopts Real-World Assets for Collateral Blockworks
FUNDING:
- Konvoy Ventures Launches $150M Fund for Web3/GameFi Blockworks
THE TAKE AWAY
Just like we take bad weeks (like the last week of June) in stride and with a sizeable grain of salt, so too should we take the not-so-bad ones (like the first week of July). This is crypto: We never know what individual, DAO, or Corporation lurks in the shadows, waiting to file for Bankrupcy protection–or for that matter–allocate all or a portion of their treasury reserves to Bitoin. To say that we’re ‘still early’ is about as useful as warning you about Terra two weeks after the fact, which is to say not at all.
And this is part of what makes the industry so dang exciting, week-in and week-out. Suffice it to say we’re nowhere near out of the woods yet, and who knows what happens next.
So here’s to the digital adventurers: Don’t get over-leveraged, don’t get phished, or scammed, and for heaven’s sake, don’t lose your keys. Basically, Godspeed–Play safe and don’t get rekt.
BITCOIN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
After rallying to an almost 1 month high this week, Bitcoin gave up some of its gains over the weekend but remains up roughly 9% WoW.
- Continuing its momentum from last week BTC achieved a high of $29,000…
- But failed to pierce the $30K level and tapered off. (Classic BTC fakeout, amirite?)
- Bitcoin has strong support at C$22,500
- Strong resistance at C$30,000
- A breakout above C$30,000 (with strong volume) could signal a rally to C$35,000
- Whereas a close below C$22,500 could lead to further losses.
- Flat Moving Averages and RSI around 50: Bulls & Bears are tied, for now…
KEY LEVELS:
COIN SENTIMENT
An overwhelming number of NDAX users continue to accumulate bitcoin, and sentiment has not been this comparatively bullish in many weeks.
About half of this week’s transactions on Canada’s favourite Crypto Platform were BUYS.
- BTC sentiment is very strong: Over 4/5ths of orders were BUYS
- AAVE and NEAR: About 2/3rds of orders were to SELL
- ETH and HBAR are gently being accumulated
- MATIC skewed slightly Bearish