Ndax Wealth: Market Report Aug 11

US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000, resetting expectations around Federal Reserve policy and pulling Treasury yields lower. Bitcoin firmed near $64,000 USD on renewed U.S. spot ETF inflows, while the S&P 500 finished Friday at a record high with the Nasdaq up more than 5% on the week. Wednesday's July CPI may be the next major test for both crypto and equity markets. 

Firmer footing: Bitcoin traded around $64,000 USD as institutional demand appeared to improve. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $865 million USD in net inflows last week, their strongest weekly performance since April after the record $4.5 billion USD of outflows in June. Cumulative net flows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain above $52 billion USD since launch.

Beneath Bitcoin, participation remains selective. Ethereum participated in the recovery, while XRP and Stellar (XLM) lagged. The Altcoin Season Index remains below 50, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in Fear territory despite modest improvement. The CLARITY Act failed to advance before the Senate's August recess, removing a near-term regulatory catalyst.

Wednesday's test: The July CPI release and resulting moves in yields and the dollar will be closely watched for their potential influence on institutional flows across the digital-asset complex. 

The jobs shock: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000, the first negative reading since February and well below expectations for an increase of approximately 80,000. May and June figures were also revised lower by a combined 103,000. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar dropped, and expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase were reduced.

The next test: July CPI on Wednesday, August 12 is the first major inflation test since the employment report shifted expectations for Fed policy. Producer prices follow Thursday and retail sales Friday. Brent crude has retreated substantially from its earlier spike as diplomatic efforts around the Strait of Hormuz have progressed, though negotiations remain unresolved. 

New highs: The S&P 500 advanced approximately 3.6% to finish Friday at a record high, the Nasdaq gained more than 5%, and semiconductors were particularly strong at more than 7%. The advance was supported by another solid earnings season, with AI infrastructure, cloud, and data-centre investment continuing to generate strong revenue growth, for certain companies.

Within the AI theme, corporate results have distinguished more clearly between companies translating capital expenditure into visible revenue and cash flow versus those where returns remain further out. Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's PPI, and Friday's retail sales will test whether softer employment and resilient earnings can coexist with a more benign inflation backdrop. 

The rate reset: Treasury yields declined as investors reduced expectations for near-term tightening, while the U.S. dollar fell to a multi-week low before recovering modestly. Gold was a major beneficiary, rising approximately 7.5% to around $4,350 USD per ounce.

The oil unwind: Brent crude declined roughly 7% to around $82 USD per barrel as the cancellation of planned U.S. strikes against Iran and renewed negotiations reduced part of the geopolitical premium. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. 

• Strategy sold 1,690 BTC, raised $653.1 million USD through share sales, and increased its USD reserve to $4.65 billion USD. (CoinDesk)
• The U.S. Senate advanced the CLARITY Act, with a key procedural vote now expected in September. (CNBC)
• Crypto card spending reached $748.7 million USD in July, and stablecoin payment inflows surpassed $1 billion USD for the first time. (The Defiant)
• Coinkite issued a security warning on July 30 after reports that BTC was drained from wallets potentially affected by weak seed generation. (The Block) 

With Bitcoin trading near $64,000 USD, equities at record highs after Friday's weaker payrolls, and Wednesday's July CPI release ahead, market conditions remain active across asset classes. Whether you're looking to add exposure or manage risk, our OTC desk can help you move efficiently. Our OTC desk is available to provide information regarding trading and liquidity services. Please reach out any time for more information about trading or available services.