Ndax Wealth: Market Report July 14

Bitcoin held near $62,000 USD after a volatile stretch that briefly carried above $64,000 USD while U.S. equities finished last week higher and Treasury yields moved into the mid-4.5% area. A packed macro week is ahead: June CPI, PPI, retail sales, and Chair Kevin Warsh's first semiannual testimony before Congress.

The consolidation: Bitcoin entered the week near $62,000 USD after briefly moving above $64,000 USD before renewed geopolitical concerns reversed part of the recovery. Spot selling pressure moderated, U.S. ETF outflows slowed from their June extremes, and the options put-to-call ratio fell to its lowest level of 2026, a signal that positioning has become less defensive, though renewed demand has not yet been confirmed.

Beneath the surface, on-chain conditions continue to resemble the later stages of a correction. Price is approaching an important aggregate break-even zone near $60,000 USD. Across altcoins, Solana continues to lead on transaction activity and application diversity, Hyperliquid remains a closely watched decentralized derivatives platform, and CLARITY Act negotiations resume in Congress.

On the radar: ETF Flow trends, Bitcoin price stability around current levels, and developments relating to the Clarity Act. 

Cross-currents: June nonfarm US payrolls came in at 57,000, with prior months revised lower, pointing to a softer pace of hiring. US Federal Reserve June meeting minutes, however, revealed a materially more hawkish committee than the labour data alone would suggest, with nine of eighteen officials indicating at least one rate increase may be appropriate in 2026 and Chair Warsh declining to submit an individual policy projection.

A packed week: June CPI on Tuesday, followed ninety minutes later by Chair Warsh's first semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Producer prices, Warsh's Senate testimony, and the Bank of Canada decision follow Wednesday, with U.S. retail sales Thursday. Headline CPI is expected to reflect June's decline in energy prices, though that report predates the latest Iran-Hormuz escalation. 

The resilience: The S&P 500 advanced approximately 1% last week and the Nasdaq outperformed as technology and AI-related companies regained leadership. Meta delivered one of the strongest large-cap performances of the week, with the market absorbing renewed Middle East tension without a broader breakdown.

That resilience will be tested as Q2 earnings season begins alongside the inflation releases. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley report this week, with ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor providing evidence on AI capital spending. Analysts raised estimates during the quarter rather than the more typical downward revisions. 

The rate move: Treasury yields moved higher as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities revived Strait of Hormuz concerns, with the 10-year in the mid-4.5% range and the 2-year at its highest since early 2025. The dollar strengthened on widening rate differentials, and USD/JPY approached multi-decade highs.

In energy and gold: Brent crude tested around $78 USD as geopolitical risk rebuilt, though additional OPEC+ supply and partially normalized shipping flows continue to offset the premium. Gold weakened despite the geopolitical backdrop as higher real yields and a stronger dollar outweighed safe-haven demand. 

• Strategy raised its cash reserve to $3 billion USD while maintaining its Bitcoin holdings. (CoinDesk)
• Senate Democrats called for an investigation into President Trump's crypto earnings. (Bloomberg)
• Circle received final approval to launch a federally regulated U.S. trust bank. (Circle)
• Grayscale's CFO resigned amid broader leadership changes at the firm. (CoinDesk) 

With Bitcoin consolidating near $62,000 USD, June CPI and Chair Warsh's first Congressional testimony arriving this week, and Middle East tensions weighing on rates and energy, market conditions remain active across asset classes. Whether you're looking to add exposure or manage risk, our OTC desk can help you with trade execution services. Please reach out any time for more information about trading or available services.