Ndax Wealth: Market Report July 28

Brent crude briefly moved above $100 USD after shipping attacks expanded from the Strait of Hormuz into the Red Sea, then reversed as the United States and Iran paused military activity. Bitcoin consolidated near $63,600 USD after touching a five-week high, and equities faced selective pressure as investors reassessed the timing of returns on AI infrastructure spending. Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and mega-cap tech earnings are the week's key catalysts.

Building a base: Bitcoin entered the week near $63,600 USD after consolidating between $62,000 USD and $67,000 USD. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third consecutive week of net inflows, though approximately $465 million USD in redemptions during the final two sessions showed institutional demand remains uneven. Price has held above June's lows and Bitcoin is consolidating near its 50-day moving average, suggesting the market is attempting to form a more durable base.

Beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum outperformed several large-cap peers and traded near $1,920 USD, while the ETH/BTC ETF holdings ratio improved for the first time in several months, indicating an early return of institutional interest. The Altcoin Season Index rose to 60 from approximately 10 in early June, reflecting gradual rotation into established alternative assets. Regulatory progress slowed as opposition to the current CLARITY Act draft increased, making passage before the August recess less certain.

This week: Whether ETF flows re-accelerate, whether Bitcoin can push out of its current consolidation range, and whether the Senate advances a revised CLARITY Act before the August recess. 

The energy shock: Brent crude briefly moved above $100 USD per barrel after attacks on shipping expanded from the Strait of Hormuz into the Red Sea, introducing a second chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb. Oil pushed approximately 12% higher on the week and contributed to a rise in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, though those moves partially reversed on Monday after the United States paused strikes and Iran signaled restraint.

On the docket: The Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting Wednesday, July 29, with the target range widely expected to remain at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting. No updated projections will be released, so Chair Warsh's press conference carries unusual importance. Thursday brings Q2 GDP, June PCE, and personal income and spending data. 

The AI question: Markets spent the past week reassessing whether the large-scale spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure is translating into sustainable shareholder returns. Alphabet and Tesla both reported solid revenue growth but faced negative share-price reactions after announcing substantial capital-expenditure increases. Approximately 86% of S&P 500 companies reporting to date have exceeded earnings expectations, well above the historical average.

Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon all report this week alongside the Federal Reserve decision. Alongside headline numbers, these reports typically include management commentary on cloud demand, AI monetization, capital-expenditure discipline, margins, and forward guidance. 

The rates and oil link: U.S. Treasury yields reached their highest levels in more than a year before retreating modestly as diplomatic efforts temporarily reduced geopolitical tensions. Brent crude briefly traded above $100 USD per barrel for the first time since May before falling sharply as the United States and Iran paused military activity, though a meaningful geopolitical premium remains embedded in energy markets.

Gold and FX: Gold recovered as Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar eased, re-establishing its role as a geopolitical hedge. The U.S. dollar remained supported by relatively elevated interest rates, while the Japanese yen continued to trade near multi-decade lows. 

• Strategy increased its cash reserve to $3.75 billion USD while maintaining its Bitcoin holdings and introducing new shareholder-focused performance metrics. (CoinDesk)
• SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said on-chain investment products may still fall under existing U.S. securities laws. (The Block)
• The CLARITY Act is unlikely to pass before Congress's summer recess, according to Senate Majority Leader John Thune. (CoinDesk)
• A revised version of the CLARITY Act is advancing in the Senate, though bipartisan support remains uncertain. (CoinDesk) 

With Brent briefly above $100 USD and quickly reversing, Bitcoin consolidating near $63,600 USD, and Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision arriving alongside Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon earnings, market conditions remain active across asset classes. Whether you're looking to add exposure or manage risk, our OTC desk can help you move efficiently. Please reach out any time for more information about trading or available services.