Ndax Wealth: Market Report Oct 6

Bitcoin traded near $86,300 USD after its strongest third quarter since 2017, briefly moving above $87,000 USD on Friday's weaker U.S. payrolls report before reversing. The 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, while the Nasdaq hit a fresh record. This Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Thursday's U.S. jobless claims are the week's key data points.

The resilience: Bitcoin entered the week near $86,300 USD after its strongest third quarter since 2017, with September marking a fourth consecutive positive September. Friday's U.S. employment report (payroll growth of 29,000 vs expectations near 90,000) initially pushed Bitcoin above $87,000 USD before the move reversed amid approximately $433 million USD of liquidations. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.7 billion USD of inflows during September, while Bitcoin's 30-day average hash rate has recovered approximately 4.5% from its August low.

Participation in other digital assets has also increased. The Altcoin Season Index stands at 68, below the 75 threshold typically associated with a broad altcoin season but substantially above earlier levels. Stellar (XLM) was among the stronger large-cap performers, while Hyperliquid eased after approaching $100 USD in late September. Hyperliquid perpetual-contract data is now available through Bloomberg Terminal, and Solana introduced open-source infrastructure to accelerate institutional trade settlement with input from JPMorgan.

Into October: With Bitcoin consolidating near the upper end of its recent range, market participants may continue to monitor activity across infrastructure, DeFi and other large-cap digital assets through October.

A softer print: September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 against expectations near 90,000, while July and August employment figures were revised lower by a combined 60,000 jobs. Annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%, and the report followed softer August inflation data, with core PCE at 3.0% year-over-year. Following the report, market pricing reflected reduced expectations of another near-term Fed rate increase.

Minutes and more: Wednesday's FOMC minutes from the September meeting will detail how broadly officials supported additional tightening before the latest employment data. Thursday brings U.S. jobless claims (previous reading of 197,000 remained historically low). Canada's September Labour Force Survey on Friday adds another North American data point after Canadian employment declined by approximately 42,000 in August.

Rate-proof so far: The Nasdaq gained approximately 0.5% last week while the S&P 500 was modestly lower, reflecting continued strength in technology and AI-related names alongside greater pressure on rate-sensitive areas. The Nasdaq reached a fresh record on Monday with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3%. Headline index performance remains concentrated among a relatively small group of large companies.

Third-quarter earnings begin this week with PepsiCo, Levi Strauss and Delta Air Lines, providing early reads on consumer demand, pricing power and cost pressures before major banks report next week. Analysts revised aggregate earnings estimates higher heading into the reporting season, and strong profit growth has so far helped equities absorb the rise in Treasury yields.

Highest since 2002: The 10-year Treasury yield reached approximately 5.34% last week, its highest level since 2002, while the 30-year yield moved above 5.5% amid persistent inflation, substantial government borrowing requirements and growing private-sector demand for capital. September's weak payroll report pulled yields modestly lower but did not fundamentally reverse the move, leaving the dollar stronger relative to several major currencies.

Across commodities and FX: Gold has retreated toward $4,100 USD per ounce amid elevated real yields and a firmer U.S. currency. WTI has fallen materially from its mid-September peak amid reports of improved Strait of Hormuz shipping activity and developments in U.S.-Iran diplomacy. In Canada, USD/CAD has moved above 1.42 ahead of Friday's employment report.

• Solana launched an open-source program enabling institutions to settle trades in seconds, with input from JPMorgan. (CoinDesk)
• Ethereum developers released a last-minute update ahead of the Glamsterdam test and its planned capacity increase. (CoinDesk)
• MetaMask is exiting Ethereum validators following a security incident affecting part of its staking infrastructure. (CoinDesk)
• A U.S. banking group sued the OCC over its decision to grant national trust charters to crypto firms. (CoinDesk) 

With Bitcoin trading near $86,300 USD, the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since 2002, and the Nasdaq setting fresh records, market conditions remain active across asset classes. Our OTC desk can help clients execute transactions efficiently. Please reach out any time for more information about trading or available services.