Ndax Wealth: Weekly Market Report Jan 14

Bitcoin enters 2026 in a calmer, more balanced state following a meaningful drawdown and consolidation phase that has materially improved internal market structure. Price has spent recent weeks consolidating near the lower end of its range, while on-chain data suggests profit-taking has faded and forced selling has largely run its course. A meaningful amount of leverage and speculative positioning has been cleared across spot, futures, and options, leaving the market less fragile than it was during the final stretch of last year. Corporate treasury purchases and early signs of renewed inflows into U.S. spot ETFs are helping stabilize prices, even as participation remains quiet. This combination of subdued momentum but improving structure often marks the transition from defensive positioning toward the early stages of re-engagement. (Source: Glassnode)

Altcoins continue to trade with greater dispersion. Ethereum has quietly strengthened its position as the backbone for value-referenced crypto assets, tokenization, and Layer-2 activity, with network usage now exceeding Bitcoin’s on a sustained basis. Solana remains firmly in focus among high-performance blockchains, supported by continued progress on infrastructure and validator resilience. At the same time, the rapid growth of tokenized real-world assets, particularly gold-backed tokens now exceeding $4 billion in market value, highlights a shift in investor behavior. Rather than chasing high-beta speculation, capital is increasingly flowing toward on-chain assets that combine crypto-native rails with traditional store-of-value characteristics. Taken together, the crypto market is entering 2026 in a more mature phase, where structure, utility, and selective risk-taking matter more than leverage-driven excitement. The Crypto Market Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, has lifted off last month’s extreme fear levels, with the Fear & Greed Index rising from 11 to 26. (Source: The Block)

The macro backdrop entering the year remains mixed but constructive. Recent U.S. data has shown cooling core inflation alongside softer headline growth indicators, helping clear some of the uncertainty that dominated late 2025. While manufacturing activity remains under pressure, services continue to expand, and the unemployment rate has edged lower, reinforcing the view that the U.S. economy is slowing but not stalling. Markets are now pricing a low probability of near-term rate cuts, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s preference to remain patient as it evaluates whether disinflation continues without materially weakening labor conditions. This environment has supported risk assets while keeping volatility elevated around data releases. (Source: Reuters)

Geopolitics, however, remains a persistent source of uncertainty. Tensions tied to Venezuela, Iran, China-Taiwan relations, and renewed rhetoric around strategic resources have injected volatility across currencies, commodities, and equities. At the same time, concerns around Federal Reserve independence, following news of a DOJ investigation into Chair Jerome Powell, briefly pressured the U.S. dollar while boosting demand for gold and other perceived safe havens. Despite these headlines, on-chain crypto data suggests market participants are largely observing rather than reacting aggressively, with exchange netflows remaining muted. The result is a market environment characterized by cautious positioning, selective risk-taking, and heightened sensitivity to policy and geopolitical signals. (Source: CNBC) 

U.S. equities began 2026 on a strong footing, with major indices pushing to record highs as investors largely looked past geopolitical tensions and focused on improving earnings visibility. According to FactSet, fourth-quarter earnings are expected to rise more than 8% year over year, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth, with revenues posting their strongest expansion since 2022. Technology, particularly semiconductors and software, continues to lead while materials have also surprised to the upside. In contrast, consumer discretionary and energy face more subdued expectations, reflecting pressure from autos, household durables, and lower oil prices. (Source: Investing.com)

Beneath the headline strength, market leadership is becoming more selective. Financials are in focus as earnings season begins, with resilient balance sheets and improving margins positioning the sector well in a higher-for-longer rate environment. Energy and defense stocks have seen sharp moves tied to geopolitical developments, while global equities have also participated in the rally, with European and Japanese markets setting fresh records. This broader participation suggests risk appetite remains intact, but increasingly disciplined. For investors, the opportunity lies less in indiscriminate exposure and more in identifying companies with pricing power, durable cash flows, and policy resilience as markets transition from liquidity-driven gains to fundamentals-driven leadership. (Source: Reuters) 

Precious metals have started the year as standout performers. Gold and silver both posted strong gains, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand, and expectations that monetary policy will eventually ease further despite near-term caution from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar has remained firm overall but volatile, particularly against the yen as markets price potential Bank of Japan tightening and rising Japanese yields. Oil markets have been highly reactive to geopolitics, with early-week supply headlines pressuring prices before unrest in Iran reignited upside risk. As the week unfolds, commodities are likely to remain headline-driven, with precious metals favored as geopolitical and policy uncertainty persists. (Source: Reuters) 

• Strategy expands Bitcoin treasury with largest purchase since mid-2025. Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) added 13,627 BTC for USD 1.25B, bringing total holdings to 687,410 BTC.  (Source: Coindesk)
• Ripple secures UK regulatory approval for e-money services. The FCA registration authorizes Ripple to issue electronic money and operate under AML regulations. (Source: Coindesk)
• BNY Mellon launches blockchain-based tokenized deposit service. The initiative enables institutional clients to move funds using blockchain rails for payments and collateral. (Source: Bloomberg)
• Trump rules out pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried The president discussed pardon criteria while reiterating support for the crypto industry. (Source; Cointelegraph)