Ndax Wealth: Weekly Market Report Nov 18

Canada’s 2025 federal budget confirmed that the country will introduce national legislation for value-referenced crypto assets, requiring issuers to maintain high-quality reserves, guarantee redemption at par, and implement stronger safeguards for operational, financial, and data privacy risks. The plan includes $10 million in funding for the Bank of Canada over two years to support implementation starting in 2026–2027, with ongoing annual costs offset by regulated issuers. The move aligns Canada with the United States, which passed its own framework under the GENIUS Act in July. Cointelegraph

Meanwhile, market sentiment has deteriorated with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 10 yesterday, signaling “extreme fear,” as Bitcoin lost more than 5% on the week, sliding under $94,000 USD after multiple failed attempts to hold the $100,000 USD level. Selling pressure has come from long-term holders taking profit, liquidations of leveraged positions, and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy following the government shutdown. Bloomberg noted that the MarketVector Small-Cap Digital Assets Index recently fell to its lowest point since 2020, underscoring how quickly liquidity has drained from the altcoin space. Still, some large altcoins showed resilience this week with Ethereum, XRP, and Solana each holding key monthly support levels. Despite $3.1 billion in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past month, year-to-date inflows remain strong at $24 billion. Importantly, most selling pressure is occurring on digital asset platforms and not on spot ETFs. In a major structural milestone, BlackRock’s IBIT fund has now surpassed Deribit as the world’s largest venue for Bitcoin options, with $38 billion in open interest versus Deribit’s $32 billion, which is a clear sign that institutional investors are increasingly shaping price discovery. Bloomberg

The U.S. government has reopened after its longest shutdown in history, easing a major source of uncertainty for markets. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that September’s jobs report has been delayed until November 20, leaving the Federal Reserve with less data than usual as it approaches the December interest-rate meeting. This reduced visibility has already affected expectations: market odds of a December rate cut have fallen below 50%, down sharply from last month. With government operations restarting, today marks the return of economic data releases, beginning with construction spending, followed by Thursday’s long-delayed employment report. NY Times

Despite the noise, household spending appears to remain solid. Executives from Visa, Mastercard, and American Express reported steady October spending across income groups, categories, and payment types, with wage growth continuing to outpace inflation. Housing costs  (one of the largest components of inflation) are easing, and wage growth has cooled from last year’s highs, supporting a gradual improvement in purchasing power. Globally, however, risks are building: China is caught in a deepening deflationary loop, with falling prices squeezing corporate margins and weakening household demand. The IMF now expects China’s consumer inflation to average zero this year, which would be one of the lowest readings worldwide. This could raise concerns of a slowdown that could echo Japan’s long deflationary period. These cross-currents, alongside Thursday’s jobs data and Friday’s PMI releases, will shape investor expectations heading into year-end. Bloomberg

U.S. equities ended last week mixed: the Dow Jones and S&P 500 posted modest gains, while the Nasdaq fell for a second straight week as investors reassessed stretched valuations and rising costs tied to artificial intelligence development. All eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings this Wednesday, a pivotal moment for the AI narrative that has powered markets for nearly two years. Analysts expect more than 50% year-over-year earnings growth, and Nvidia’s guidance on data-center demand, chip supply, and next-generation hardware will influence not only the semiconductor sector but also broader risk appetite, which has increasingly moved in tandem with AI sentiment. Reuters

Newly released 13F Q3 filings showed several large hedge funds increasing their exposure to AI and cloud-infrastructure leaders: Third Point added to Microsoft, Coatue and Tiger Global boosted stakes in Alphabet, Synopsys, and Snowflake, and other funds expanded semiconductor and software holdings tied to AI demand. Some managers also placed contrarian bets on Chinese e-commerce and emerging-market fintech companies after a prolonged selloff. Taken together, the filings show sustained institutional conviction behind AI as a multi-year growth theme, with selective re-entry into discounted global markets. Seeking Alpha

Input costs remain mixed across sectors: food processors and biofuel refiners are benefiting from lower agricultural prices, while consumer-products companies are seeing relief in packaging and chemical costs. Yet inflation persists in other areas, forcing some firms to continue raising prices or cutting costs. Gold surged early last week to $4,245 but fell sharply on Friday  (down 3%)  after hawkish Federal Reserve commentary reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts and broad equity selling triggered margin-related liquidation. Oil markets were volatile: prices fell early in the week after the International Energy Agency warned of a growing supply surplus but recovered after Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted Russian export flows. Inventory data and the U.S. dollar’s direction will be key drivers this week. The Chronicle Journal

Ndax's news feature provides the latest news, stories, and trends to help you keep your hand on the pulse of crypto and blockchain.

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• Visa is piloting payment technology using value-referenced crypto assets to improve cross-border settlement efficiency. Bloomberg
• Canada’s 2025 budget includes legislation for value-referenced crypto assets, advancing national oversight of digital finance. Cointelegraph
• The EU is proposing to give ESMA direct supervision of crypto-service providers across the bloc, pending parliamentary approval. Bloomberg

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