Ndax Wealth: Weekly Market Report Nov Dec 17

Crypto markets are currently closing the last two weeks of the year in a notably quieter regime, with Bitcoin consolidating around the $87,000 USD level as participation continues to thin. Futures open interest has fallen to roughly $33 billion, which is its lowest level since before the U.S. election. This may indicate a broad and deliberate de-leveraging situation across the crypto ecosystem. Just two months ago, both price and leverage were at record highs; since then, positioning has reset as traders lock in gains, reduce balance-sheet risk, and step back ahead of year-end. Spot Bitcoin ETF volumes are also down roughly 30% month-to-date, reflecting potentially a seasonal risk reduction rather than sustained distribution. Historically, these low-volume environments tend to mark pauses that cleanse excess leverage and lay the groundwork for more stable expansions once liquidity returns. CoinDesk

Beneath Bitcoin, market behavior has become increasingly selective. Solana has staged intermittent rebounds but remains constrained by futures-led selling pressure, suggesting that upside will require a clear improvement in spot demand. Ethereum has been comparatively resilient, supported by its role as the settlement layer for value-referenced crypto assets, tokenization, and decentralized finance, while XRP has lagged amid softer momentum. One of the more important structural trends continues to be the rise of tokenized real-world assets. For example, gold-backed crypto coins now exceed $4 billion in market capitalization, nearly tripling in 2025. This growth reflects a shift toward “on-chain defensives,” where investors seek exposure to traditional safe havens while remaining within blockchain infrastructure, which may be a sign of a maturing investor base that is prioritizing utility, resilience, and regulated access over leverage-driven speculation. AInvest

Macro data continues this week under an unusual degree of uncertainty following the U.S. government shutdown. Employment and inflation releases are returning, but with delayed payroll reporting and thinner price sampling, individual data points may be noisy and prone to revision. As a result, markets are increasingly focused on broader trends rather than single prints. On that front, consumer behaviour remains relatively resilient: fear of unemployment appears contained, allowing households to draw down savings to absorb higher prices. This dynamic suggests underlying demand could persist into early 2026, even as labour conditions gradually cool. Reuters

Monetary policy remains the primary driver of cross-asset pricing. Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive 25-basis-point cut, lowering rates to 3.5–3.75%, but the 9–3 vote highlighted growing divisions within the committee. While growth forecasts were revised higher and inflation projections edged lower, the Fed continues to signal only one additional cut in 2026, which is fewer than markets currently expect. Globally, policy paths are diverging: the Bank of England is leaning toward further easing, the European Central Bank appears comfortable holding steady, and the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a potential rate hike. A more hawkish BoJ outcome could strengthen the yen and raise the risk of carry-trade unwinds, introducing short-term volatility, though this may be partially offset by easier U.S. policy and improving global liquidity conditions. Investing com

U.S. equities ended last week mixed after the Dow and the Russell briefly reached record highs, with pressure re-emerging in technology and growth stocks. Oracle’s earnings and cautious outlook reignited debate around the economics of artificial intelligence, particularly the gap between massive capital spending and durable profitability. As depreciation, power, and infrastructure costs rise, investors are increasingly questioning whether AI investment cycles will translate into sustained margins. With the S&P 500 trading well above long-term valuation averages, even modest earnings disappointments have begun to exert outsized influence, prompting a reassessment of crowded mega-cap positions. Reuters

Beneath the surface, leadership is becoming more nuanced. Financials and industrials have shown relative strength, supported by resilient earnings and a more accommodative rate environment, while defensively positioned cyclicals are attracting incremental flows. At the same time, policy and regulatory developments are playing a larger role in shaping risk premiums, such as speculation around the future leadership of the Federal Reserve and heightened scrutiny of large corporate transactions. The result is a market that is no longer rewarding broad multiple expansion, but instead favors balance-sheet strength, cash-flow visibility, and earnings durability. For sophisticated investors, this shift creates opportunity through selectivity rather than blanket exposure. The Economic Times

Precious metals remain standout performers. Gold continues to trade near record highs, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, sustained central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical risk. Silver has gone further, reaching new all-time highs amid tightening supply and strong industrial demand. In currency markets, the dollar has softened for a third consecutive week as policy divergence comes into focus, while the yen remains highly sensitive to expectations around Bank of Japan tightening. Oil prices, by contrast, have come under pressure as forecasts of a sizable supply surplus in 2026 outweigh geopolitical risks for now, reinforcing a broader theme of dispersion across real assets. Reuters

• Visa rolls out a new advisory offering focused on value-referenced crypto assets, helping institutions evaluate and implement strategies. The Block
  Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years in U.S. prison, closing one of crypto’s most consequential fraud cases. CoinDesk
  DTCC receives approval to pilot tokenization of select U.S. securities, extending record-keeping onto approved blockchains. DTCC
  The IMF described that the rapid growth of USD-denominated value-referenced crypto assets could increase currency substitution risks, particularly in fragile economies. IMF