Ndax Wealth: Weekly Market Report Nov Dec 2

Bitcoin tried to stage a recovery the week of Nov 24, rallying roughly 7% off the lows near 80.5K USD and briefly reclaiming the low-90Ks USD before sellers stepped back in. As we start this new week, BTC has slipped back toward the mid-80Ks USD, leaving it stuck in a fragile 81K–89K USD range and still down ~30% from its early-October peak. On-chain data shows elevated realized losses and a sharp deterioration in short-term holder profitability, consistent with a market that’s leaning defensive rather than capitulating. Grayscale’s latest research frames this as a “bull-market drawdown” rather than the start of a multi-year bear phase: the current 32% pullback is close to the historical average for corrections during previous uptrends, and they still see a path to new highs in 2026, especially if rate cuts and clearer U.S. legislation arrive on schedule. (Source: Grayscale)

Under the surface, both leverage and positioning have shifted meaningfully. Roughly $600M+ in crypto longs were wiped out in a single 24-hour window as BTC broke lower Monday morning, an abrupt reset after several quiet weeks for liquidations. At the same time, ETF flows have turned from heavy outflows to tentative inflows again, with U.S. spot BTC products posting their first positive week after four straight weeks of redemptions. Concerning altcoins, the majority of them were also down trending with very few exceptions. AI-themed tokens have lagged despite solid progress in real-world integrations such as Near’s “Intents”. That hasn’t been enough to flip sentiment: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is back in “extreme fear,” and options markets remain skewed toward downside protection into the big December expiry. (Source: TheBlock) 

International crypto trading platform spot prices versus future prices are stabilizing, while value-reference crypto asset balances on platforms are increasing; this may imply that substantial sidelined capital is ready to be deployed quickly if the narrative turns. For investors, the message is clear: this is a low-liquidity, high-option-gamma regime where both forced de-risking and sharp snap-back rallies may be very much in play. (Source: Crypto City) 

The macro backdrop has become more supportive for risk assets on the surface, but under the hood some cross-currents matter for crypto and high-beta equities. In the U.S., a string of softer data, such as weaker retail sales, a slide in consumer confidence, and cooling price pressures, has pushed markets to price in a high probability of a 25-bps rate cut at the December 9–10 Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Fed officials have leaned more dovish in recent speeches, and the end of quantitative tightening on December 1 effectively freezes the Fed’s balance sheet after roughly US$2.4T of runoff, removing a steady headwind to liquidity. The near-term pivot is now less about “if” and more about “how fast,” with incoming ISM, payrolls, and core PCE data coming up this week likely to decide whether we get one cut or the start of a more aggressive easing path into 2026. (Source: Reuters)

Outside the U.S., the key story is Japan and the slow unwinding of the global carry trade. For decades, ultra-low Japanese rates encouraged international investors to borrow in yen and buy higher-yielding assets including U.S. credit, tech stocks, and increasingly crypto. That assumption is now being challenged: comments from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda have pushed markets to price a meaningful chance of another rate hike, and Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently touched its highest level since 2008. If domestic yields keep grinding higher, capital that once chased returns abroad will be pulled back home, tightening global liquidity at the margin. Layer on the Eurozone inflation that’s hovering just above 2% ahead of the December 18 ECB meeting, a Canadian labour market that remains surprisingly firm, and a potential new Fed chair who may be more openly dovish, and you get a macro picture where rate paths diverge even as everyone is watching the same thing: how quickly policy makers are willing to cut, and how far real yields can fall. (Source: Bloomberg) 

Global equities exited the holiday-shortened week on a strong note, led by U.S. indices. The S&P 500 gained roughly 3.5–4% for its best week since mid-year, the Dow also advanced solidly, and the Nasdaq 100 outperformed as traders rotated back into big tech on the expectation of a December rate cut. Underpinning the move: a sharp repricing in Fed expectations, a decisive drop in the dollar, and another blockbuster consumer showing. Black Friday online sales hit a record ~US$11.8B, up high single-digits year-over-year, with Mastercard and Adobe both highlighting strong e-commerce demand and heavy use of AI-powered tools to hunt for deals. The mix of easier policy, resilient consumption, and a weaker dollar is exactly what growth-heavy benchmarks like. (Source: Investing.com)

Beneath the index level, leadership remains concentrated but is slowly broadening. AI-linked megacaps are still the gravitational centre of the equity market: not just for semiconductor chips but for hyperscaler capex and “AI infrastructure” narratives into 2026. At the same time, recent 13F filings show many sophisticated managers tilting toward what they see as durable AI winners and are adding to names like Microsoft, Alphabet, Synopsys, and select cloud/software plays, while quietly reducing exposure to more speculative, unprofitable growth stories. Others are selectively re-entering beaten-up areas such as Chinese e-commerce and emerging-market fintech, betting that the worst of the de-rating is behind them. For equity allocators, the signal is that institutional money is still leaning into AI and quality growth, but with a sharper distinction between assets that actually deliver cash flow and those that are just riding the theme. (Source: Advisor Analyst)

In rates and FX, the dollar has started the week on a weaker footing as traders price in an extended cutting cycle from the Fed, even while keeping an eye on possible surprises from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank. The softer dollar and growing conviction around lower real yields have been a powerful tailwind for precious metals: gold just logged its strongest monthly run since mid-year and is trading near record territory, supported by central-bank buying, ETF inflows, and renewed “insurance” demand from macro funds. Silver has quietly outperformed, hitting fresh highs on a combination of gold sympathy and structurally tight industrial supply. In energy, oil remains volatile but better bid after OPEC+ reaffirmed that it will hold output steady into Q1 while drone attacks on Russian infrastructure disrupted some export flows. The combination of cautious producers, patchy demand, and recurring geopolitical headlines has kept crude in a range, with every dip attracting hedging flows from both airlines and macro accounts. (Source: Investing.com) 

• Gen Z, housing, and the crypto escape valve – How high housing costs and stalled mobility are nudging younger investors toward crypto and a more nihilistic view of traditional finance.(Source: Financial Times)
• Do Kwon pushes for a cap on prison time – Terraform Labs’ founder is seeking to limit his sentence to five years in the multibillion-dollar Terra collapse case.. (Source: TheBlock)
• Tether faces collateral and transparency scrutiny – S&P Global warns that reserve-asset quality and disclosure could leave USDT vulnerable to a break of its dollar peg. (Source: S&P Global)
• Allegations around Trump-linked crypto ventures – A new report from House Judiciary Committee Democrats claims Donald Trump and his family reaped hundreds of millions from crypto deals while in and after office. (Source: Coindesk)