Ndax Weekly TL;DR Oct 5

SEC sets out proposed custody rules for advisers and funds holding crypto

• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a new framework governing how registered investment advisers and regulated funds can custody crypto assets. The proposal, which is now open for public comment, would permit self-custody under certain circumstances, allow state trust companies to serve as crypto custodians and update existing requirements around areas such as audits and broker-dealer custody. (CoinDesk)
• Why it matters: Custody has been one of the practical barriers preventing traditional investment firms from expanding further into crypto. A more tailored framework could give advisers and funds better options for holding digital assets in compliance with federal securities laws and offering crypto-related investment strategies. While the proposal still needs to go through the rulemaking process, it could be seen as another step forward in integrating crypto with traditional financial markets.

Institutional demand returns to Bitcoin

• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $2.65 billion in net inflows during September, marking the second-largest monthly total since October 2025. The funds also posted a nine-day streak of positive flows, worth around $3.1 billion, before recording $148.7 million in outflows last Wednesday. (The Block)
• Why it matters: The data suggest demand through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs strengthened considerably as Bitcoin rallied in September. ETF flows can provide a gauge of demand for Bitcoin through traditional investment channels. Sustained ETF demand can also absorb meaningful amounts of available Bitcoin supply, making whether those inflows continue an important factor to watch as the market enters the fourth quarter.

Ethereum backs away from major staking overhaul

• The authors of Ethereum’s EIP-8363 withdrew it from consideration for Ethereum’s upcoming Hegotá upgrade following industry feedback and concerns from core protocol and client contributors. The proposal calls for burning an increasing share of validator rewards as more ETH is staked, with the burn eventually reaching 100% at roughly half of Ethereum’s supply. At roughly 34% of ETH supply staked, the fully phased-in proposal would reduce annual consensus yield from roughly 2.6% to 1.2%. (The Defiant)
• Why it matters: Staking rewards are a major consideration for how much ETH investors are willing to lock up. They also impact the economics of validators and the incentives facing liquid-staking providers. EIP-8363 would have substantially changed those factors in an effort to prevent an increasingly large share of ETH from becoming staked. Pulling it from Hegotá removes near-term uncertainty for stakers, but the authors continue arguing that very high staking levels could eventually threaten Ethereum’s decentralization and monetary properties. The authors said Ethereum’s broader issuance debate requires a separate process.
   

Canadian spotlight: BMO and CIBC expand tokenization push

• BMO and CIBC announced this week that they are joining Project Agorá, a global initiative led by the Bank for International Settlements and the Institute of International Finance. The project is testing tokenized wholesale cross-border payments and brings together eight central banks and more than 40 regulated financial institutions. (Fintech.ca)
• Why it matters: Canadian banks are now moving beyond domestic experiments with tokenized deposits and into efforts to test international payment infrastructure around the same technology. BMO and CIBC’s participation means two of Canada’s largest banks will play a role in testing how tokenized money could move across currencies, institutions and jurisdictions, including the potential for around-the-clock settlement.
   

BTC Weekly Range: $121K-$123K
ETH Weekly Range: $3.8K-$3.9K

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Oct. 5: U.S. ISM Services PMI for September.
Oct. 6: U.S. Trade Balance
Oct. 7: U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from the Sept. 15–16 meeting.
Oct. 9: Canadian Unemployment Rate
 

Bitcoin ended September on firmer footing after a strong late-month stretch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. On Friday, softer U.S. employment data pushed Treasury yields lower and reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase in October. The move followed a volatile September in bond markets, but crypto is now entering the final quarter of 2026 with improving risk sentiment.

Friday’s U.S. employment report showed the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. July payrolls were revised from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, while August’s data was revised down to 133,000. All this added evidence that the labour market is cooling and strengthened the argument for the Fed to wait before raising rates again.

By contrast, the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation measure came in somewhat softer than expected this week. The PCE price index rose 0.3% in August and 3.4% year-over-year. New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also suggested this week that policymakers have time to assess incoming data before deciding whether to further tighten.

Canada’s economy delivered a weaker signal. GDP was unchanged in July after three months of growth, with manufacturing down 0.9% and retail activity falling 1%. Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate suggests the economy returned to 0.2% growth in August. Still, July’s flat reading reinforces concerns that momentum slowed as new U.S. tariffs began taking effect.

For crypto, the combination of softer inflation, weaker employment, and a patient tone from Fed officials offers some relief after September’s first rate hike in three years. Attention will turn to Monday’s ISM Services PMI, Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s Canadian employment report. It remains to be seen if the slowdown in U.S. hiring is enough to keep the Fed on hold without deteriorating into a broader economic slowdown that begins weighing on risk appetite.

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