Ndax Wealth: Market Report Jan 28

Digital asset markets remain fragile, shaped by reduced leverage and more constrained risk-taking. Bitcoin continues to trade in the high 80,000 USD to low 90,000 USD range, an area where a large share of supply last changed hands and where conviction has proven difficult to establish. On-chain data shows that recent buyers have remained highly active in this zone, supplying liquidity into rallies and creating persistent overhead resistance. As a result, upside moves have struggled to convert into acceptance, reinforcing a market defined by range trade and liquidity conditions rather than narrative momentum. Glassnode

The structure of risk, however, has improved meaningfully. The October 2025 liquidation event flushed excess leverage from the system, compressing futures participation while driving exposure toward options markets. Bitcoin options open interest now exceeds perpetual futures, with positioning skewed toward protective structures rather than outright directional bets, which may be evidence that risk is being reframed, not abandoned. Outside of Bitcoin, higher-beta assets continue to underperform, with ETH and other large-cap altcoins amplifying downside during drawdowns. Sentiment has deteriorated sharply, but supply remains insufficiently stressed to force capitulation. Until price can sustain acceptance above the recent range, the next decisive move may be more likely driven by external macro catalysts (e.g., FOMC, USD strength or weakness) rather than internal crypto narratives. Cryptoslate

Macro conditions continue to be driven by political volatility rather than economic weakness. Renewed trade-war rhetoric from President Trump (particularly around Greenland and potential tariffs on European NATO allies) triggered a swift repricing across risk assets before subsequent walk-backs tempered the move. The pattern is now familiar: headline escalation, rapid volatility, partial reversal. Markets have learned to fade the extremes, but not before first reassessing risk and pulling back exposure. The Guardian

The more durable signal came from cross-asset behavior. Even as risk sentiment briefly improved, the U.S. dollar weakened materially while gold and silver pushed to fresh record highs, which is a combination that may point to deeper unease around policy credibility and geopolitical stability rather than cyclical growth concerns. Economic data remains firm, with U.S. GDP revised higher and core inflation still elevated, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see posture ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Jan 28. Focus will be less on the rate decision itself and more on forward guidance and on the political backdrop, including the anticipated announcement of Chair Powell’s successor, which is likely to express itself first through rates and FX rather than equities. Reuters

Equity markets continue to balance macro uncertainty against earnings-driven validation. After a sharp selloff early last week, U.S. indices rebounded so far this week, which is a pattern consistent with a market trading near record highs but increasingly sensitive to policy shocks and valuation discipline. Volatility is being driven less by growth fears and more by uncertainty around regulation, fiscal direction, and geopolitical signaling, forcing investors to reassess risk premia rather than chase momentum. Reuters

Attention now shifts decisively to earnings. With more than 100 S&P 500 companies reporting this week (including several mega-cap technology leaders like AAPL, META, MSFT, TSLA), the market is testing whether elevated expectations remain justified. While projected profit growth remains solid, it is slowing just as AI-related capital expenditures accelerate, shifting the conversation from ambition to accountability. Recent rotation away from long-duration tech into value, cyclicals, and select small caps reflects this tension. Strong results could reassert technology leadership, but any disappointment is likely to deepen dispersion and reinforce a market that increasingly rewards balance-sheet strength, pricing power, and resilience to policy risk rather than broad beta exposure. Forbes

The defining macro signal remains USD weakness alongside accelerating demand for traditional hedges. The dollar has slipped to multi-month lows as yen strength and renewed intervention speculation dominate FX markets, which is an unusual moment where U.S. policymakers appear openly attentive to currency volatility. Precious metals have responded decisively: gold has surged beyond $5,100 per ounce, and silver has broken above $100, reflecting sustained demand for protection against geopolitical risk, policy instability, and questions around central bank credibility. Energy markets remain headline-driven, with oil supported by renewed Iran tensions and U.S. military posturing, while natural gas spiked on extreme cold weather. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin continues to behave as a high-beta risk asset rather than a macro hedge, remaining acutely sensitive to rates, FX volatility, and cross-market stress, underscoring where capital is currently seeking protection. Reuters 

• Standard Chartered sees that value-referenced crypto assets could divert up to $500B from U.S. bank deposits by 2028, pressuring regional lenders The Block
• PwC describes institutional crypto adoption as irreversible, citing deep integration across payments, settlement, and treasury operations Pwc
• Former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison released after cooperation in the FTX fraud case, following a reduced sentence The Guardian
• Morgan Stanley signals expanding digital asset strategy with plans for a crypto wallet and tokenized asset support later this year Barrons